THE MATHS, MADE CLEAR
How it works
Enter the decimal price originally taken and a comparable closing price for the same outcome and rules. The result reports both the odds-price ratio and the separate change in implied probability.
Odds-ratio CLV = (original decimal odds ÷ closing decimal odds − 1) × 100. Probability movement = closing implied probability − original implied probability.
Worked examples
Positive CLV
Taking 2.20 before a 2.00 close gives +10.00% odds-ratio CLV. Implied probability moves from 45.45% to 50.00%, a rise of 4.55 percentage points.
Negative CLV
Taking 1.80 before a 2.00 close gives −10.00% CLV. The market later offered a larger potential return for the same outcome.
Limitations and interpretation
CLV depends on the selected closing snapshot and comparable market rules. Positive CLV on one bet does not prove profitability or a verified long-term advantage.